The Power of Prediction
Why We Crave Certainty, and How to Build Safety Without Losing Flexibility
Imagine you’re walking through thick fog on a winding trail. You can’t see more than a few steps ahead, so you grip the map tightly. You scan the path, searching for clues. You plan each step carefully. You check the forecast, again and again.
That instinct? It’s not a flaw. It’s your brain trying to keep you safe.
For many of us, especially those with trauma histories, anxiety, or neurodivergent processing, prediction feels like survival. The unknown isn’t just uncomfortable; it can feel dangerous.
Why Prediction Feels So Powerful
Our brains are wired for patterns. From an evolutionary standpoint, prediction helped us survive: spotting a storm, reading a social cue, knowing which berries were safe. Prediction calms our nervous system. It says: “You’re in control. You’re prepared. You’re safe.”
But what happens when the forecast in your head keeps screaming “Tornado warning!”, even on sunny days?
We stop going outside. We cancel plans. We wait for a perfect moment that never arrives.
This is the power and price of prediction.
Helpful or Harmful? A Simple Comparison
Planning your day
When it helps: It creates structure and reduces overwhelm.
When it hurts: You panic or feel dysregulated if plans change unexpectedly.
Rehearsing conversations
When it helps: It builds confidence before a tricky or unfamiliar interaction.
When it hurts: You avoid speaking altogether unless you’ve scripted every word.
Following food routines
When it helps: It supports sensory needs, health conditions, or emotional regulation.
When it hurts: You feel anxious or unsafe when faced with new or unplanned foods.
Checking messages
When it helps: It can strengthen connection and foster closeness with others.
When it hurts: You rely on responses to feel worthy or secure, leading to constant checking or reassurance-seeking.
Seeking certainty (e.g., horoscopes, researching online, or consulting psychics)
When it helps: It can offer comfort or temporary clarity during stressful times.
When it hurts: It replaces your own decision-making confidence and builds long-term dependence.
Your Brain as a Weather App
Think of your brain like a weather app. Constantly scanning for threats. Sometimes it helps, like packing an umbrella for a real storm. But if your app constantly predicts tornadoes, you might never leave the house.
Prediction protects us, but too much prediction shrinks our world.
The Safety Dial: How Much Control Do You Need?
Picture a dial inside your chest labelled: “Control Needed to Feel Safe.”
When it's too low, life feels chaotic and overwhelming.
When it's too high, we feel stuck, rigid, and exhausted.
Therapy isn’t about turning that dial to zero. It’s about learning how to adjust it, gently, intentionally, so it gives enough safety without locking the door to growth.
Why Prediction Becomes a Lifeline (Not a Flaw)
People don’t script conversations or plan meals because they’re “overreacting.” These are often access strategies, especially for:
Autistic and ADHD individuals navigating a fast-paced, sensory-heavy world
Trauma survivors rebuilding a sense of safety
People with OCD or GAD seeking relief from overwhelming “what ifs”
Marginalised communities facing real systemic unpredictability
These strategies aren’t dysfunction. They’re clever, human, and often necessary.
The Stage vs. The Party:
Imagine you’re an actor. On stage, you have a script, lights, cues. Predictable, rehearsed, safe.
Now, imagine walking into a party where you don’t know anyone, the lighting’s weird, and there are no clear roles. That unstructured, unscripted world? That’s what uncertainty feels like for many people.
So we build our own scripts, we plan outfits, rehearse lines, scan for social cues. We do it to stay safe.
But sometimes, we become so scripted, we forget how to just show up.
Micro-Uncertainty: Building Your Tolerance Muscle
You don’t have to leap into chaos. Start small.
Try a “micro uncertainty rep”, like a mini workout for your nervous system.
Don’t re-read that text before hitting send.
Try a new snack without planning.
Leave 10 minutes of your day unscheduled.
Ask a question even if you feel unsure.
Notice: What feelings come up? What strengths helped you through?
This is how we slowly retrain the prediction habit, not erase it.
Reframing “Control” in a Strength-Based Way
Control isn’t the enemy. It’s a tool. The question is: is your tool helping you build something… or is it holding you back? Use this prompt:
“Is this behaviour helping me move toward something I value, or protecting me from a feeling I’m scared to feel?”
Let’s respect control as a strategy for survival, while gently experimenting with flexibility.
Prediction Journal: Try This
Each week, write down:
One thing you’re uncertain about.
What you’re predicting might happen.
Add: “If that happens, I’ll try…”
This practice builds emotional agility, helping you act from intention, not fear.
Create Predictable Anchors, Not Prisons
You don’t need to throw away your routines.
Instead, keep what works:
Morning rituals
Visual schedules
Favourite foods or spaces
“Safe phrases” like “I can handle not knowing this, for now.”
Just check: Are these routines serving you, or are you serving them?
Prediction is a Tool, Let’s Use It Wisely
You’re not “too much.” You adapted to stay safe.
Let’s keep what works, the structure, the planning, the preparation, and gently add more space for possibility, curiosity, and trust.
Because true safety isn’t in knowing everything. It’s in knowing you’ll handle what comes next, step by step.
